基于区域监测站的BDS定轨策略分析     

王乐  黄观文  张勤  燕兴元  秦志伟  王利  崔博斌 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(5):497-503

围绕影响轨道精度和实时性的5个要素（模糊度分类固定、测站数量、定轨弧长、太阳光压模型和多系统组合）展开研究，得出区域测站分布下的定轨优选策略。实验表明，选取中国区域27个均匀分布的地面区域监测站，利用72 h弧长观测数据，采用ECOM 5参数简化太阳光压摄动模型、BDS/GPS双系统联合定轨可达到较好的精度，其中GEO卫星轨道精度约291 cm，IGSO/MEO卫星轨道精度优于11 cm。若BDS单系统采用上述策略进行定轨，也可达到GEO卫星299 cm和IGSO/MEO卫星14.4 cm的近似等价定轨精度。  相似文献   

利用短期静态PPP结果反演海潮负荷位移     

魏国光  王琪洁  彭葳  郭良琦 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(6):607-612

采用香港11个GPS测站的观测资料进行1 h、2 h、3 h和4h静态PPP解算，获得4组PPP坐标序列，利用调和分析求取11个测站处8个主要分潮的负荷位移参数（振幅和相位），将其与海潮模型计算的负荷位移参数进行对比，并比较分析PPP反演值与海潮模型值改正海潮负荷信号的效果。结果表明，垂直和水平方向上，不同PPP结果反演8个分潮的负荷位移分别具有约5 mm和7 mm的差异；PPP反演8个分潮垂向负荷位移优于全球海潮模型，但水平方向上的反演效果稍弱。  相似文献   

基于表层岩土渗透对三峡井网井水位降雨影响的精准分析          下载免费PDF全文

周洋  吴艳霞  罗棋  李查玮 《地震工程学报》2020,42(2):460-467,528

为研究三峡井网表层岩土渗透对井水位降雨的影响,采取井区表层岩土垂向渗透性测试方法试验,测得表层岩土垂向渗透性,并建立数学模型,用于降雨渗入补给分析。在此模型基础上,通过三峡井网8口井水位、气象三要素的对比观测资料对井水位日动态、月动态、年动态的影响进行精准分析与验证。结果表明:这种影响的特征是相当复杂的,同一个降雨过程在不同井上产生的影响特征不同,这一方面可能与各井的水文地质条件不同有关,另一方面可能还与各井点的降雨过程的差异也有关。  相似文献   

Runoff-generated debris flows: Observation of initiation conditions and erosion–deposition dynamics along the channel at Cancia (eastern Italian Alps)     

Alessandro Simoni  Martino Bernard  Matteo Berti  Mauro Boreggio  Stefano Lanzoni  Laura Maria Stancanelli  Carlo Gregoretti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(14):3556-3571

In the Dolomitic region, abundant coarse hillslope sediment is commonly found at the toe of rocky cliffs. Ephemeral channels originate where lower permeability bedrock surfaces concentrate surface runoff. Debris flows initiate along such channels following intense rainfall and determine the progressive erosion and deepening of the channels. Sediment recharge mechanisms include rock fall, dry ravel processes and channel-bank failures. Here we document debris flow activity that took place in an active debris flow basin during the year 2015. The Cancia basin is located on the southwestern slope of Mount Antelao (3264 m a.s.l.) in the dolomitic region of the eastern Italian Alps. The 2.5 km² basin is incised in dolomitic limestone rocks. The data consist of repeated topographic surveys, distributed rainfall measurements, time-lapse (2 s) videos of two events and pore pressure measurements in the channel bed. During July and August 2015, two debris flow events occurred, following similarly intense rainstorms. We compared rainfall data to existing rainfall triggering thresholds and simulated the hydrological response of the headwater catchment with a distributed model in order to estimate the total and peak water discharge. Our data clearly illustrate how debris entrainment along the channel is the main contributor to the overall mobilized volume and that erosion is dominant when the channel slope exceeds 16°. Further downstream, sediment accumulation and depletion occurred alternately for the two successive events, indicating that sediment availability along the channel also influences the flow behaviour along the prevailing-transport reach. The comparison between monitoring data, topographical analysis and hydrological simulation allows the estimation of the average solid concentration of the two events and suggests that debris availability has a significant influence on the debris flow volume. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stormflow threshold behaviour in a subtropical mountainous headwater catchment during forest recovery period     

Lezhang Wei  Zhijun Qiu  Guangyi Zhou  Tsuyoshi Kinouchi  Yu Liu 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1728-1740

Forest ecohydrological feedbacks complicate the threshold behaviour of stormflow response to precipitation or wetting conditions on a long-term scale (e.g. several years). In this study, the threshold behaviours in an evergreen-deciduous mixed forested headwater catchment in southern China were examined during 2009–2015, when damaged vegetation was recovering after the great 2008 Chinese ice and snowstorm. The non-uniqueness of the thresholds and the slow and rapid responses of stormflow at the outlet of the catchment in different hydro-climate datasets with different maximum values of gross precipitation (P) and sums of precipitation and antecedent soil moisture index (P + ASI) were assessed. The thresholds of P and P + ASI required to trigger stormflows (i.e. ‘generation thresholds’) and the transition from slow to rapid responses of stormflow (i.e. ‘rise thresholds’) were compared both seasonally and annually. The results indicated significant differences in the analysed datasets, highlighting the need to compare thresholds with care to avoid misinterpretation. Seasonal variations in threshold behaviours in the catchment suggested that vegetation canopy interception contributed to higher rise thresholds, and wetter conditions resulted in higher runoff sensitivity to precipitation during the growing and rainy seasons. Furthermore, the generation thresholds were higher in the dormant season, possibly due to drier soil moisture conditions in the near-channel areas. During the vegetation recovery period, the annual generation thresholds increased, however the rise thresholds did not exhibit a similar trend. The rapid stormflow response above the threshold decreased, possibly due to transpiration and interception of the recovered vegetation. However, the slow stormflow response to small rainfall events below the thresholds was higher in wetter years but lower in drier years, suggesting that the total water input dominated the stormflow response during small rainfall events. In conclusion, the seasonal and annual variations in threshold behaviours highlight that vegetation recovery and hydro-climatic conditions had a notable impact on the stormflow response.  相似文献   

新疆库尔勒市道路积尘重金属污染及健康风险评价     

阿地拉&#;艾来提  麦麦提吐尔逊&#;艾则孜  靳万贵  姑力巴努&#;艾尼  艾尼瓦尔&#;买买提  阿里木江&#;卡斯木 《中国地质》2020,47(6):1915-1925

为探究绿洲城市道路积尘重金属污染风险，在新疆库尔勒市采集54个代表性道路积尘样品，分析其中Hg、Cd、As、Pb、Cr和Cu等6种元素含量，基于GIS技术与地学统计法，采用污染负荷指数法和US EPA健康风险评价模型，对道路积尘中重金属污染及潜在健康风险进行评价。结果表明：库尔勒市道路积尘中Hg、Cd、As、Pb和Cu等元素含量的平均值均小于土壤环境质量—建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准（GB 36600—2018）中的筛选值，但Cr元素含量平均值为相应筛选值的9.90倍。污染评价结果表明，研究区道路积尘中Cr呈现重度污染，Hg、Cd、As、Pb和Cu呈无污染。道路积尘中重金属元素的污染负荷指数介于0.0142~0.0522，平均值为0.0266，处于无污染水平。从道路积尘重金属污染空间分布格局来看，库尔勒市东北部和北部区域出现污染高值区。健康风险评估结果表明，经手-口摄入途径是库尔勒市道路积尘重金属日均暴露量及健康风险的主要途径，儿童受到的健康风险高于成人。库尔勒市道路积尘中Hg、Cd、As、Pb、Cr与Cu等元素的非致癌风险及致癌风险处于安全范围内，As对非致癌风险的贡献最大，Cr对致癌风险的贡献最大。  相似文献   

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates          下载免费PDF全文

Michael J. Hollaway  Keith J. Beven  Clare Mc W. H. Benskin  Adrian L. Collins  Robert Evans  Peter D. Falloon  Kirsty J. Forber  Kevin M. Hiscock  Ron Kahana  Christopher J. A. Macleod  Mary C. Ockenden  Martha L. Villamizar  Catherine Wearing  Paul J. A. Withers  Jian G. Zhou  Nicholas J. Barber  Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.  相似文献   

基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害风险评估     

李明  张韧  洪梅 《海洋通报》2018,(2):121-128

全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,造成的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害的风险评估工作至关重要。针对海洋灾害评估中的不确定问题,本文首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出针对不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型有效实现海洋灾害的风险评估,具有实际可操作性。  相似文献   

河北昌黎地震台地电阻率异常分析     

乔子云  张国苓  茅远哲  贾立峰  寇海川  周剑青  佟鑫 《地震地磁观测与研究》2018,40(1):85-90

河北昌黎台地电阻率EW测道2017年6-8月出现快速下降变化，经检测，观测系统工作正常。通过环境调研和辅助资料对比分析，发现该变化与降雨和粉丝厂干扰有一定关系。采用褶积滤波法去掉降雨干扰，EW测道地电阻率仍为下降趋势，说明该下降变化不能完全用降雨来解释，不排除是地震前异常变化的可能。  相似文献   

基于EEMD-SARIMA的对流层延迟预测模型研究     

任超  刘中流  梁月吉  甘祥前 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(9):953-957

在无气象数据的条件下，提出一种基于集合经验模态分解（EEMD）和季节性自回归移动平均模型（SARIMA）的对流层延迟（ZTD）预报新方法，并分别选取长春、上海、乌鲁木齐3个地区4个季节的ZTD数据进行预测分析。结果表明，基于EEMD-SARIMA的ZTD改正预报模型能够满足不同地区、不同季节下的ZTD估计需求，是一种高精度的ZTD预报方法。  相似文献